Understanding NFL Totals

Posted by: Ross Everett  /  Category: Gambling

For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is also a crucial component of his wagering arsenal. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number you’ll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER. In the case of the aforementioned Superbowl, Pittsburgh won by a final score of 27-23 meaning that bettors who backed the OVER cashed their tickets.

To the uninitiated, betting on NFL totals can seem very arbitrary–like office pools where players pick the final score of a game. In reality, they’re a favorite tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much. Like NFL pointspread wagers, the ability for a bettor to pick is spots is also a valuable asset as a successful handicapper can look for situations where the total itself is off as well as more subjective factors (weather, injury or matchups) that can contribute to the scoring output or lack thereof.

The basics of setting NFL totals are fairly simple: the bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive data for the two teams and constructs a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games that’s a total of 625 and their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and you’ve got a base total of 40.5.

At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team”meaning that a team with a strong defense will be more likely to dictate the tempo’ of a game resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.

Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow, or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple–some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations.

In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for a hard working handicapper to leverage his information about a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury–and have factored it into the number–but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge for the NFL betting enthusiast.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

The Evolution of the Slot Machine

Posted by: Harley Appleton  /  Category: Slots

What started as an inventive hobby by a German mechanic in San Francisco, resulted in the most popular gambling game in casinos today. Charles Fey is credited with creating the very first slot machine he called the Liberty Bell. Along with liberty bell graphics, the 3 reels were pictured with familiar playing card symbols like hearts, clubs, diamonds, spades, and kings, queens, and jacks. Pull the arm, watch the reels spin, match three symbols, and you’ve just hit the jackpot!

The Liberty Bell slot machine quickly became famous and various bell-themed machines began appearing everywhere, from cigar stores and saloons, to barber shops and brothels. Nostalgic glimpses of the very first Liberty Bell slot machine take place in Reno, Nevada at the Liberty Bell Saloon and Restaurant. Gambling prohibition soon came along to ruin the fun of the slots, but proprietors prevented the slot machine ban by replacing the well-known gambling symbols with fruits and gums. You may recall that the common symbol on slots today (BAR) was once the logo of the Bell-Fruit Gum Company and some regions referred to them as fruit machines. These revised machines were allowed to continue to be played since they dispensed candy instead of money.

Cash prizes were reintroduced to slot machines and Bally developed the first electronic machines in the 1960s. Since they took up more room than gaming tables and boasted a high payout percentage, casino owners were reluctant to accept them. Drastic changes in the 1970s, such as more reels, more symbols, and larger bets, encouraged players to gamble more but also jackpot less. This made casino owners happy and they started filling up their game rooms with slot machines.

The slot machine endured its biggest transformation in the 1980s with the invention of random number generators. Since casino owners could set payout percentages to every machine, they controlled the amount of money they made. This change also made the iconic arm of the machines obsolete and the SPIN button was more commonly used. However, some slots still sport the arm as a way to remind players of the traditional style.

Nearly three quarters of a casino’s floor space is covered with slot machines. They are also the most profitable for casino owners. From toy replicas to the real deal in Nevada airports, slot machines are everywhere. So simple, yet so much fun, slot machines will continue to be an addicting, popular pastime for years to come!

Are you a gambler? For the latest gambling and betting news, visit MyOwnBet.com, a website dedicated to gambling, sports and crazy news.

Understanding The Kentucky Derby For Horse Racing Novices

Posted by: Ross Everett  /  Category: Gambling

Although the Breeders’ Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don’t follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.

A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

Post position is also something that the horse racing neophyte should pay attention to. Obviously post position number 1 is an advantage relative to the outer ones, but it hasnt been a strong edge over the other inside positions. Twelve Derby winners have had the #1 position going into the race (the most of any position) but positions #4 and #5 have had ten winners each. In terms of percentages, positions #1 through #5 have yielded 49 winners (or just under 40%). On the other hand, the outermost positions (#11 through #20) have had just 16 winners (or just under 13%). It is important to note that theres not always that many horses in the race, which would obviously result in few higher posts winning. Still, concentrating on horses with favorable post positions is another way to pare down a field that you know little about.

A horse’s lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren’t born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse’s gender and eliminate any horse that isn’t an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.

Don’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980′s.

If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

The Strange Life Of Poker Legend Stu Ungar

Posted by: Ross Everett  /  Category: Poker

One of the cruel ironies of human existence is that bountiful gifts are often given to those who cannot handle them. Beauty and money come immediately to mind, but talent in a particular discipline is often bestowed upon those who cannot maximize it to its greatest potential. Still others are unwittingly destroyed by some trait or characteristic that makes them exceptional. That’s what makes an athlete like Michael Jordan so exceptional-seldom are awesome talent, desire, discipline and dedication found in the same package in such prodigious abundance. The mass of humanity often reaps the benefits of their talents despite their external flaws. Such was the case with poker great Stu Ungar, who was found dead in his room at the Oasis Motel in Las Vegas on November 22,’98.

The only way to accurately describe Ungar’s poker skills is to evoke a sports metaphor–Ungar’s skills at the card table were like those of Michael Jordan or LeBron James on the basketball court. Ungar’s greatest accomplishment was his three World Series of Poker victories, an accomplishment not far removed from Michael Jordan’s six NBA titles. While countless volumes have been written on poker strategy, Ungar’s understanding of the game was almost instinctive. Although he won millions playing poker, the amazing reality was that it was essentially a ‘plan C’ for him as a professional card player. He started as a Gin Rummy prodigy, but quickly ran out of willing opponents in his native New York. He then moved to Nevada, and cleaned out the gin players in the Silver State. He turned to blackjack out of necessity and was almost instantly successful, only to be barred as a card counter at a number of Las Vegas casinos. Needing a new way to earn money as a card player, he took up poker.

The cruel irony of Ungar’s life, however, was that masterful as he was at the poker table he was equally as inept at life beyond the casino walls. He was addicted to drugs for most of his life, and gambled away millions betting on sports and golf (a game he played despite being horrible at it). After his WSOP win in’97, he was nearly broke and wasted away from drug use by the time the’98 tournament rolled around. Vegas casino owner Bob Stupak bankrolled him, but as the games began Ungar cowered in his darkened hotel suite at Binion’s unable to pull himself together enough to play.

Other stories of Ungar’s troubled life away from the poker tables evoke the same theme: buying a new Mercedes with cash after a WSOP victory and driving it until it fell apart from lack of maintenance; signing mortgage papers as he played in the Dunes poker room; losing 1.5 million dollars betting on sports in the course of a weekend.

Ungar’s death came as something of a shock as he’d shown signs of cleaning up his act. Longtime friend Bob Stupak and helped pay off his debts and staked him in the major poker tournaments. Ungar was found dead two days after the two had drawn up a formal contract. Ungar also left behind an ex-wife and a teenage daughter, who still live in Las Vegas. Though the official cause of death was listed as a ‘heart attack’, there were a mixture of drugs found in his system including cocaine and methadone.

Most of the famous gamblers of Las Vegas legend-guys like Puggy Person and Doyle Brunson– have been tough, larger than life individuals with a healthier than normal dose of self-preservation skills. In this respect, Ungar was an anomaly among gambling greats-he was physically frail and almost completely helpless away from the poker table. With a handful of cards and a pile of chips, however, he became a ruthless and indomitable warrior. His story is certainly not one that the modern day, publicity conscious Las Vegas will celebrate. He will be remembered, however, as part of the tradition that gives the city its unique character. From the mobsters that pioneered the city, to the Rat Pack that civilized it, to the corporations that cleaned it up, characters like Stu Ungar have provided the spice that makes Las Vegas America’s ‘Paris in the desert’. Ungar may never have a statue on Fremont Street, but his spirit will live on.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Profitable Sports Gambling Begins With Discipline

Posted by: Ross Everett  /  Category: Gambling

There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.

Poker–like sports betting–can be a profitable endeavor, and one in which knowledge and skill can counteract the theoretical odds against him. Legendary poker theorist Bob Caro once noted that while there are some professional poker players, sports bettors or blackjack players there’s not a single professional roulette player.

The reason for that is that the house advantage in roulette is too high to overcome by any combination of skill, money management, strategy or discipline. To throw in another Caro concept, its a case where the decisions made by the roulette player simply don’t have a role in overcoming the house advantage. Over the long haul whether you choose red or black, even or odd the house edge remains the same.

Caro stresses the paramount importance of discipline to a poker player’s long term success and profitability. It’s important to keep in mind that to succeed as a professional gambler that you need to approach a trip to the casino with a diametrically opposite mindset to that of the recreational gambler. A recreational gambler heads to the casino to *avoid* discipline and ‘unwind’. The professional uses discipline to his advantage.

Caro’s emphasis on discipline in poker is also true for the serious sports gambler. The foundation of a professional sports bettor’s long term success is to approach it with the same discipline, rigor and professionalism that he would any other job. If you continue to think about it in the same terms as the recreational gambler does, you’re in for a difficult road. The more seriousness that you bring to your sports betting, the higher the likelihood that you’ll be successful.

There’s nothing wrong with being a recreational sports gambler, or a recreational gambler of any sort. They’re vital to those of us who do this for a living since they’re what keeps casinos and sportsbooks in business. Ultimately, the best handicapping is pointless without a sportsbook to take the action.

The life of a professional sports bettor isn’t for everyone, and if you just want to bet recreationally and have fun with it that’s great. While a few theoretical tips here and there won’t hurt, the only discipline that really matters for a recreational player is the same thing for any other hobby–don’t spend more on it than you can afford to. After that, you’re on your own to have fun with it.

Ross Everett is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports and is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a variety of websites and broadcast media outlets. He is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, wombat breeding and falconry. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.