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A day after failing to make weight for his fight against Matt Hughes, Thiago Alves dominated the former UFC welterweight champion en route to a 2nd round TKO victory. The main event at UFC 85 in London was somewhat anticlimactic to the fans at the O2 Arena who considered the semifinal matchup between Manchesters Michael Bisping and Jason Day the biggest fight on the card.

Hughes didnt make any excuses following his one sided loss, saying simply that hes a good fighter and he got me. The longtime king of the UFCs welterweight division also gave notice that his career as an active fighter was drawing to a close, suggesting that he had one fight left and challenging Matt Serra in what presumably would be his retirement match. Hughes had no answer for Alves from the opening horn, as he was stuffed on several takedown attempts early on. When he did finally get his opponent to the ground he was unable to do much damage. Alves, conversely, scored effectively with his striking including several damaging knee strikes. He also did considerable work on the ground, with an elbow strike opening up a large cut on Hughes forehead. Though he didnt get to his knees a la Georges St. Pierre, Alves did make a plea to Dana White for a title shot. His failure to make weight wont help his cause, however, and judging from the UFC Presidents incredulous smirk in response that opportunity wont be immediately forthcoming.

The end came early in the 2nd round as Hughes was caught coming in by a devastating knee strike. He fell to the canvas in a heap and referee Herb Dean was jumping in to stop the contest before Alves could follow up with any punches.

Michael Bisping simply overwhelmed Jason Day en route to a lopsided TKO victory. Bisping built upon the improved boxing skills he demonstrated at UFC 83 by unveiling an impressive ground and pound attack. Day never really got anything going and by the last minute of the fight was simply trying to cover up to prevent damage from Bispings elbows and hammer fists. Between his move down to the middleweight division and his improved technical striking skills, Bisping looks like a different fighter. His post UFC 83 suggestion that he wanted a fight with Anderson Silva seemed premature at the time, but following another devastating performance its starting to look much more realistic.

In other action, Mike Swick used an array of high kicks and a 7 reach advantage to coast to a unanimous decision over Marcus Davis. Davis, a former professional boxer, was unable to get inside against his lanky opponent and was never really in the fight.

A controversial point deduction for a strike to the back of the head cost Nate Marquardt his match against Thales Leites. Marquardt was solidly in charge for the entire fight, but suffered a point deduction for an illegal knee strike in round one. While that infraction was valid, replays of the 2nd round deduction for the strike to the back of the head gave the impression that he was penalized for a legal strike to the side of the head.

In the opening PPV match, another controversial ending saw Fabrico Werdum defeat Brandon Vera by 1st round KO. The fight had been evenly contested up until the stoppage, with Werdum scoring a couple of takedown and Vera countering with some effective punching. Late in the first round, Werdum got a full mount and began to fire a series of punches. Vera was clearly defending himself and didnt appear to be hurt at all when the referee jumped in to stop the fight.

Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

There’s not much ‘middle ground’ when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the ‘boiler room’ sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there’s no more sure thing than preseason football. There’s a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.

The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don’t count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That’s not something that can be taken as a ‘given’ during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.

The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the “better” team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the “better” teams have not only more ‘marquee names’ to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they’ll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They’ll have no need to “create a winning attitude”, nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the “better” teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.

Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A “lesser” team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they’ll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games”whether or not they count in the standings”are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won’t have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league’s elite can mean a lot more.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.

The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams’ beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of “real” news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach’s goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they’re more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play “on”, but teams with priorities other than winning to play “against”.

In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It’s a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other”and better”football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Heading into last Sunday, there was a consensus that the New York Giants were the best team in the NFL with an undefeated record, a productive offense and the league’s top ranked defense. The New Orleans Saints made a compelling case to the contrary, however, as they dismantled the Giants to win 48-27 behind yet another MVP-like performance from quarterback Drew Brees. Brees threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions as New Orleans kept their record perfect on the season at 5-0.

NFL betting enthusiasts who took New Orleans as -3 home favorites were confident that they’d be cashing a ticket by halftime as the Saints shot out to a 34-17 lead at the break. The Saints also remained perfect against the NFL pointspread at 5-0, while the Giants failed to cover for the first time this season and stand at 5-1 ATS. The 75 points scored sailed OVER the posted total of 47. New Orleans has gone OVER in 3 of 5 this year, while the Giants have an OVER biased NFL totals record of 4-1-1.

After the game, Brees explained his team’s strategy:

“We wanted to really dictate the tempo of the game the whole way through. Seven different guys scored touchdowns. That’s big. That’s the type of rhythm that, when you get in, you feel like you can call anything and it’s going to work.”

The Saints are off to their best start since’93 and have yet to trail in a game this season. Still, head coach Sean Payton wasn’t entertaining talk that his team had established themselves as the presumptive Superbowl favorite:

“I don’t think you can talk about big pictures after game 5.”

Giants’ QB Eli Manning was looking forward to a homecoming of sorts-his father, Archie, played the same position for New Orleans during his NFL career. Suffice to say it didn’t go as he had planned:

“It’s not the way I imagined it during the week, but you’re going to encounter all sorts of games and all sorts of situations. I look at it as a loss. We need to go back to work this week, fix some things and try to improve.”

New York head coach Tom Coughlin marveled at the play of the Saints’ offensive line who gave Brees great protection all day long:

“I don’t know that we ever hit him. At this level, if you’re going to stop the pass, you’ve got to get pressure. You’ve got to force the quarterback not to throw it on his tempo.”

The Saints will now face the Miami Dolphins on the road, with New Orleans a -6 favorite and the total set at 47. After the trip to south Florida they’ll return home for a game against longtime rival Atlanta on Monday night football. They’ll then host the Carolina Panthers on November 8. The Giants return home to play the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night, with New York a -7 home favorite and the total set at 46. They’ll head to Philadelphia to play the Eagles next week before returning home for a date against the San Diego Chargers on November 8.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer and respected authority on soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring.

Don’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the ‘true odds’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer who has written on sports gambling and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared as a guest on TV and radio talking about boxing, hockey and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.