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For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is also a crucial component of his wagering arsenal. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number you’ll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER. In the case of the aforementioned Superbowl, Pittsburgh won by a final score of 27-23 meaning that bettors who backed the OVER cashed their tickets.

To the uninitiated, betting on NFL totals can seem very arbitrary–like office pools where players pick the final score of a game. In reality, they’re a favorite tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much. Like NFL pointspread wagers, the ability for a bettor to pick is spots is also a valuable asset as a successful handicapper can look for situations where the total itself is off as well as more subjective factors (weather, injury or matchups) that can contribute to the scoring output or lack thereof.

The basics of setting NFL totals are fairly simple: the bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive data for the two teams and constructs a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games that’s a total of 625 and their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and you’ve got a base total of 40.5.

At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team”meaning that a team with a strong defense will be more likely to dictate the tempo’ of a game resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.

Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow, or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple–some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations.

In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for a hard working handicapper to leverage his information about a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury–and have factored it into the number–but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge for the NFL betting enthusiast.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

If you’re entering a large poker tournament, the game requires a much different strategy than traditional table games or small tournaments. A large part of tournament play is about surviving the early rounds while building up a bankroll into the latter stages so you can effectively compete with the larger players. The goal of entering a large tournament is either to cash in – to survive until the cash round – or to make it to the cutoff for winning entry into a larger tournament such as a satellite. In order to help navigate the tables at large scale tournaments, this guide walks you through the various stages of the games.

Always pay close attention to how other players utilize their stacks to determine their strategies. Some aggressive players take a “go for broke” strategy which aims to go big or go home. At the same time, you may notice more passive players waiting for a big hand. Since players rotate at major tournament tables, taking note of new player behavior can help you properly adjust your strategy for each stage of the game.

Early Tournament Play

Most modern tournaments take a freeze out format, which means there are no re-buys so a losing player is eliminated from the tournament. As a result, most players begin the game waiting for a big hand to maximize their chances of doubling up. This is a good strategy to start with but you can also benefit by taking advantage of the timidity of other players to become selectively aggressive.

For instance, suppose you enter a hand with J-10 suited and the flop comes K-Q-3 where you hit only three of your suit with an open ended straight draw. While you might believe you opponent is holding a king, re-raising aggressively might signal you have a set (three of a kind) or two pair. By moving all in you force your opponent to risk their entire stack on a gamble – in many cases you can get your opponent to fold on this basis. Since the blinds and antes are relatively low you can carefully pick the spots in which you are aggressive, maximizing your chances of making the right move when you finally do.

Middle Game Play

In the later rounds, as play becomes more competitive, its important to update your personal strategy. Blinds and antes increase in these later rounds, so time becomes crutial, requiring you to play more rounds. While a more open approach may have to be adopted pre-flop, you should continue tight aggressive play post-flop utilizing your read on your competitors along with the cards.

Try to stay away from players with large stacks who could put you all in based upon a bluff forcing you into a tough decision. Instead wait for an opening that will allow you to double up against a weaker player or take several smaller pots to build your stack. This kind of careful play can help you find your way with a strong hand into the later stages of the tournament.

The author is a successful limit cash game player. He plays poker online and receives Absolute Rakeback and Full Tilt Poker Rakeback.

Although the Breeders’ Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don’t follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.

A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

Post position is also something that the horse racing neophyte should pay attention to. Obviously post position number 1 is an advantage relative to the outer ones, but it hasnt been a strong edge over the other inside positions. Twelve Derby winners have had the #1 position going into the race (the most of any position) but positions #4 and #5 have had ten winners each. In terms of percentages, positions #1 through #5 have yielded 49 winners (or just under 40%). On the other hand, the outermost positions (#11 through #20) have had just 16 winners (or just under 13%). It is important to note that theres not always that many horses in the race, which would obviously result in few higher posts winning. Still, concentrating on horses with favorable post positions is another way to pare down a field that you know little about.

A horse’s lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren’t born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse’s gender and eliminate any horse that isn’t an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.

Don’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980′s.

If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

In our poker playing experience we have seen players who are ready to play every hand, even aggressively raising pre-flop with the statistically worst starting hand a 2-7 off suit. We have also witnessed the players who sit patiently, always folding every hand until they can raise with a high pocket pair. Comprehending these extremes of loose and tight play can help construct your personal strategy by mixing up your approach ensuring you don’t become predictable at the table.

The ability to signal what you want is the key to an effective table image. By balancing your approach between a combination of aggression and selective loose play you can keep your opponents in the dark. Having the right cards, combined with a lucky streak is vital to all players, being able to use marginal cards and good tactical play to outsmart your opponents can move you from a average to a winning player in less time.

Poker is a mathematical game, and adjusting your table image can help skew the probability in your direction. According to David Sklansky, a leading poker player and poker theorist, the fundamental theorem of poker states that making your opponents play differently than they would if he or she could see your cards puts your hand in positive expected value territory. Therefore, mixing up slow play, bluffing and outright aggression can help improve your ability to make your opponents misread your hand.

When to Implement Aggressive Play

Aggression can be a useful tactic at the poker table, especially when you want to extract maximum value from a good hand or want to appear strong when bluffing. Aggressive play can help you put your opponents off guard, putting you into control of the action so you can maximum the expected value of any given hand. Importantly, there are different types of aggressive play including subtle aggression where you check and raise after you opponent bets, as well as passive aggression where you let your opponent raise in early rounds and then increase the stakes on the turn and river when bet sizes double.

A careful use of aggressive play at the poker table can lead to a major difference when it comes to getting the best out of your better hands and assist in successfully bluffing when you feel you have a weak opponent. Those players who are successful at poker understand the delicate art of bluffing, as well as the necessity of careful signaling.

Using Loose Play

We’ve all seen players who are seemingly random and reckless with their betting, playing any two cards or entering a pre-flop raise with suited connectors. Carefully done this strategy can deliver impressive results when you hit your straight or flush, or when you want to establish yourself as a loose player.

Mixing your table image utilizing loose play will have the effect of encouraging more players to enter pots when you actually have a strong hand. Allowing yourself to loose a bit on high risk loose play early on can really be a semi-bluff with high returns when you get a full set of callers with pocket aces later in the game. The objective is to keep your opponents off guard and playing loose throughout the game can provide the table image that accomplishes that.

The author is a successful limit cash game player. He plays poker online and receives Fat Bet Poker Rakeback as well as Rakeback at Minted Poker.